Welcome to another NEWSChannel 2 Winter Outlook. Remember that long term and seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. Last winter, we forecasted slightly snowier than normal and slightly colder than normal. We grossly overestimated how cool it would get. And we were a little too conservative with our snow forecast. We did accurately forecast a higher risk of an ice storm last winter, and we had two relatively significant ice events on Martin Luther King Day and in March. Here's what we think for this year.

Last winter, we had to deal with an El Nino. This winter, we are dealing with the opposite, a La Nina. In a traditional La Nina year, you would expect warmer than normal temperatures and drier conditions, especially across the southeast US. However, across the Great Lakes and North-Central United States, cooler than normal conditions typically prevail, and so does a greater risk of precipitation around the Lakes. In fact, we have gone back and detailed La Nina years similar to the current one unfolding over us now, and what happened in those years is not too surprising. There were several La Nina years that really stood out as having similar characteristics to this one. Those years were:

1950-51
1956-57
1961-62
1964-65
1970-71
1971-72
1973-74
1984-85
1988-89
1998-99
2000-01

Subsequent winter's snowfall in those years averaged around 98.7", or just about normal. However, individually, the numbers included five well below normal snowfall winters, three near normal snowfall winters, and three well above normal snowfall winters, all of which are on the top 10 list all-time. Basically, a winter setup where you receive all or nothing in terms of snowfall, which certainly complicates making a long-term forecast.

The one pattern that seemed to resonate throughout those winters was that we got hit fairly hard in the first half of winter. This was followed by a mid-winter lull. Then things revved up again by March. In fact, many of our snowiest March months occurred in La Nina winters, not all necessarily like this one. One thing to keep in mind, is that we have been locked in a weather pattern over the last several weeks and even months where a dominant ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere has been centered near or over us. This has provided warmer than normal weather and fair conditions.

Given that the Great Lakes are at record high temperatures as of this writing, it is apparent that it will only take a nominally cold air mass to begin turning the gears of the lake effect machine. Therefore, while several La Nina winters did indeed include very little snowfall, we do feel that snowfall this winter will end up above normal, with much of it falling in the first few weeks (providing we can break down that persistent ridge of high pressure) and last few weeks of the season. If we don't break the pattern somehow, then this winter may very well behave like last winter, with a tepid early season and harsh late season. That said, we still think we end up above normal in the snow department.

There are numerous other things we could look at and take into account regarding hemishpheric blocking patterns, ocean water temperatures, hurricane season, etc. We do feel that the La Nina setup and the overall warmth of the Lakes will end up being the driving force in our winter snowfall.

That said, we are also expecting a warmer than normal winter. We do feel there will be periods of bitter, Arctic cold, some of which could last for awhile, as there are always are in CNY in the winter, but the frequency of them will be less so than the second half of last winter. In the sample of years above, only one winter finished with below normal temperatures. The other ten samples finished with normal to above normal temperatures, and in most cases, well above normal.

Things to watch?

Given that many La Nina winters feature some impressive Upper Midwest cold, it won't take much of a shift to guide those cold outbreaks east however. One snowstorm that sets a band up over your measuring spot and dumps 10-20" more than surrounding areas can upend every single winter forecast you try and make. Therefore, in the end, the numbers may not work out. La Nina itself might not continue full throttle throughout winter. If significant weakening occurs through the first half of winter, this could change things up a bit and result in colder temperatures and/or more or less snowfall. Same thing would be the case if the La Nina rapidly strengthens. All things we will need to watch, and we will continue watching all winter long in our Weather Blog.

So to summarize, the unofficial official NEWSChannel 2 Weather Center Winter Forecast for CNY calls for:

- Above normal snowfall
- Above normal temperatures