SEVERE WX : Lake Effect Snow Warning - Winter Weather Advisory View Alerts

If Biden wins Michigan, is it all over?

CNN senior political writer and analyst Harry Enten says Joe Biden has the advantage in the upcoming Michigan Democratic primary.

Posted: Mar 7, 2020 12:14 PM
Updated: Mar 9, 2020 11:30 PM


Eight days ago, the political world was preparing for one of two scenarios:

1) Bernie Sanders runs away with key Super Tuesday states like California and Texas -- and, in so doing, builds a delegate lead that begins to look insurmountable

2) Joe Biden shows some strength on Super Tuesday, staying within shouting distance of Sanders in the delegate count and setting up an extended delegate battle between the two men.

Instead, a third scenario developed: Biden racked up a series of unexpected wins in places likes Texas, Minnesota and Massachusetts and kept it relatively close in California -- producing a delegate lead for the former vice president heading into Super Tuesday II tomorrow.

All of which brings us to this: Does Sanders have to win Michigan on Tuesday to continue to make the case that he is a viable alternative to Biden?

The answer is probably.

Here's why: Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Michigan primary. The electorate -- 70%+ white and more than one-third white non-college-educated -- should favor Sanders' demonstrated base of support.

And it's more than just the raw numbers. The dominant story in the national news media since Super Tuesday is of an energized Biden -- buoyed by the support of many of his former rivals including, most recently, Sens. Kamala Harris (California) and Cory Booker (New Jersey).

If Sanders loses Michigan by a wide margin -- and several post-Super Tuesday polls suggest that is what will happen -- while also losing badly in places like Mississippi, which also votes on Tuesday, the Vermont senator could find himself in a deeply unenviable position: too far behind Biden in the delegate chase to make a reasonable case to all but his most loyal supporters that he has a chance to make a comeback.

The Point: Sanders' fundraising ability and the loyalty of his core supporters mean he can stay in the race as long as he wants. But hanging on is very different from having a chance to win.

New York Coronavirus Cases

County data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1255971

Reported Deaths: 41173
CountyCasesDeaths
Queens1569407852
Kings1538388057
Suffolk1272872589
Nassau1138122551
Bronx1051755272
Westchester844201797
New York753193439
Erie517181371
Richmond447371380
Monroe44007760
Rockland31668806
Orange28574642
Onondaga27492528
Oneida16660342
Dutchess16541311
Albany16168255
Niagara11933241
Broome10981255
Saratoga914080
Schenectady8587124
Ulster7642191
Rensselaer6772104
Putnam644774
Chemung5567108
Chautauqua554156
Oswego487265
Ontario469482
Steuben4560131
Cayuga437269
Sullivan379849
Genesee365198
Wayne364651
Herkimer356156
St. Lawrence354759
Cattaraugus337361
Jefferson314522
Madison310876
Livingston267740
Tompkins264123
Cortland262854
Columbia243269
Allegany234775
Montgomery219774
Tioga219154
Wyoming213542
Clinton212918
Fulton207052
Warren204538
Greene202557
Orleans190868
Chenango175040
Otsego164623
Washington147324
Lewis145924
Seneca121846
Franklin11299
Delaware100020
Essex97218
Schoharie8895
Yates81316
Schuyler71410
Hamilton1461
Unassigned44104
Out of NY0165
Rome
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 22°
Feels Like: 26°
Binghamton
Cloudy
31° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 21°
Rome
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 26°
Rome
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 27° Lo: 6°
Feels Like: 26°
WKTV Radar
WKTV Temperatures
WKTV Severe Weather
2021 Golfer's Paradise Card - 21 Courses for only $99.99
Saluting Those Who Are Proud 2 Serve