Unusually warm weather will continue in Central New York as we approach the fall season. Typical weather, by now, would be highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows more regularly in the upper 40s and low 50s. Instead, our forecast is calling for temperatures that are about 10 degrees warmer than that, both during the day and at night. This warming pattern is due to the jet stream lifting far to the north. Once this pattern sets up, it typically lasts for more than a week, and that's likely going to be the case as we head through the middle and end of September.
With that being said, this is likely going to be a warmer than average September in Central New York. If that ends up being the case, this will be the seventh above average September in a row. We've noticed that the early fall months have been trending warmer in the past several decades due to the overall changing climate.
In addition to the warmer temperatures, we are keeping a close eye on the weather for Tuesday night into Wednesday. A low pressure system is expected to approach from the west and carry a cold front through the region. The front is expected to produce showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, especially south and west of Utica. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible.