It's ironic to be writing this article on the coldest day of the week and month (so far), but our weather is going to change in a major way over the next 48 hours. High pressure, that brought arctic air to the region over the past 24 hours, will shift east, changing the wind direction into the south. A storm system to the west and high pressure to the east sets up a conveyor belt of warm air. This surge of warmth will bring temperatures back into the 30s tomorrow and into the 50s over the weekend.
Here's a look at the current high temperature records for the weekend:
January 11th: 58° (1939)
January 12th: 62° (1932)
It's tough, but not impossible for one or both of these records to be tied or broken.
In addition to the warmth, we do have some rain, even freezing rain, to contend with, especially on Friday morning. The highest risk of freezing rain looks to be in areas north and east of Utica early Friday morning. By noon, temperatures are expected to climb above freezing in all areas, with rain.
What about flooding? It's something we always follow in the spring with snow melt and rainfall. We don't have a large, deep snowpack in Central New York this year, so there really isn't much to add beyond rainfall. Also, while it has been rainy, it hasn't been as rainy as the past few months. This is the first heavy rainfall event of 2020, with accumulations expected to range between 1-2". The highest amounts of rain look to be north of the valley, with lower amounts south of the valley. Overall, there is a risk for flooding, but it doesn't look as bad as what happened on Halloween.