The weather is expected to turn active and unsettled over the next several days. A warm front has been gradually lifting north today, bringing clouds to Central New York. Some breaks in the clouds have allowed temperatures to break into the 60s and low 70s this afternoon, especially south of the Mohawk Valley. We're expecting this front to stall in Central New York tonight and tomorrow.
A weak disturbance moves along this front tonight and brings widespread rain showers to the region. It's possible a few thunderstorms develop, but these should be rather weak and non severe. Cloudy skies first thing Wednesday morning, with a few breaks in the overcast expected. Any sunshine we do see will help bring more instability into the atmosphere and increase the chances for thunderstorms.
The best chance of thunderstorms looks to be south of the Mohawk Valley, where warmer temperatures are expected. Cooler air in and north of the Mohawk Valley will mean a lower chance for strong storms. Any storms that do develop could produce gusty winds and small hail. The timing looks to be during the early to mid afternoon.
Cooler weather looks to follow in the wake of this cold front, with rain chances on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s.