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StormTracker 2 winter outlook 2019-2020: Another 100"+ snow season ahead

The Stormtracker 2 winter weather outlook is calling for above average snowfall for this upcoming winter.

Posted: Nov 21, 2019 8:27 PM

The StormTracker 2 weather team is calling for a snowier than average winter with typically cold temperatures. Here's our official forecast:

Snowfall for Utica: 100-120" (Average 95")
Average December-February Temperature: 24° (average 24°)

How do we come up with this forecast?

Seasonal forecasts are generally based on similar past years. This is called analog forecasting. In 2019, computer models are getting much, much better at seasonal projections (though we still have a long way to go). We're taking a blend of these different ideas to give you our best guess at the upcoming winter. Yes, we said guess, because what we do here is very, very different than the forecasts we do on a daily basis. We can't predict specific events, but we can get an idea on trends.

The trends point to an active winter

El Nino is in a very weak to neutral phase, meaning it won't be the main driver in our local weather. Our main driver will be the frequency of cold outbreaks from the arctic. While this is difficult to predict, we do know that cold outbreaks tend to last longer in weak El Nino Patterns. This is also noted in the previous "weak El Nino" years:

Snow tends to be plentiful in previous similar winters. In fact, the second snowiest winter happened in a weak El Nino pattern (1992-1993).

Great Lakes Temperature

We're always closely tracking the temperature of the Great Lakes heading into the fall.  A warmer lake temperature tends to favor more lake effect snow and a longer lake effect snow season.  Cooler than average temperatures lead to less snowfall and a shorter lake effect season.  The temperature of the Great Lakes is very close to average at this point in the late fall.  This means the Great Lakes should produce a typical snowy season for our area.

One last important note

Forecasting the weather for an entire season is still a very new science and we don't encourage anyone to make serious decisions on this prediction. The truth is it's very difficult to know how the winter will truly play out. We're making some educated guesses on where the prevailing jet stream will set up. We are picking out the most likely scenario based on past years. They don't all play out the same way.

New York Coronavirus Cases

County data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1279811

Reported Deaths: 41587
CountyCasesDeaths
Queens1600187889
Kings1568738092
Suffolk1298042624
Nassau1160652581
Bronx1069555302
Westchester857231819
New York765463456
Erie524731390
Richmond455161388
Monroe44631780
Rockland32137817
Orange29078656
Onondaga27948535
Oneida16976352
Dutchess16963322
Albany16521260
Niagara12229248
Broome11255260
Saratoga937583
Schenectady8770128
Ulster7822196
Rensselaer6965106
Putnam657675
Chautauqua566064
Chemung5643108
Oswego496169
Ontario477082
Steuben4632131
Cayuga447471
Sullivan388749
Wayne372254
Genesee3689100
St. Lawrence368563
Herkimer368259
Cattaraugus342761
Jefferson327224
Madison317376
Livingston273742
Tompkins270724
Cortland266854
Columbia252472
Allegany237575
Montgomery226575
Tioga222854
Wyoming221244
Clinton220918
Fulton214053
Warren211942
Greene207860
Orleans194569
Chenango179544
Otsego173823
Washington154224
Lewis154024
Seneca123946
Franklin11649
Delaware102923
Essex98819
Schoharie9145
Yates83519
Schuyler72410
Hamilton1471
Unassigned53122
Out of NY0166
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