Stormtracker 2 Winter Outlook 2017-2018

Our forecast is calling for a warmer than average winter with above average snowfall. We think the three month average temperature will end up about 4 degrees above average with 100-120” of snow for the City of Utica.

Posted: Nov 16, 2017 5:42 PM
Updated: Nov 16, 2017 6:30 PM

It’s that time of year! Jill and I have been working on predicting the upcoming winter for the past few weeks, and we are ready to reveal the outlook:

Our forecast is calling for a warmer than average winter with above average snowfall. We think the three month average temperature will end up about 4 degrees above average with 100-120” of snow for the City of Utica. The average snowfall for Utica is 95.6”.  Our forecast is based on a weak La Niña and the much warmer than average temperature of the Great Lakes.

As we head into the winter it’s worth taking a look back at the fall. The warm, dry weather we’ve enjoyed was, in part, caused by the prevailing weather and jet stream pattern influenced by La Niña. La Niña is the counterpart of its brother, El Niño. La Niña occurs when the sea surface temperature across the Eastern Pacific Ocean drops below normal.

La Niña affects the weather in the winter. The jet stream set ups right over the Great Lakes and northeast, creating a conveyor belt for moisture and a path for storm system. In addition, with a stormy season, there are opportunities for cold front to slide in from Canada, bringing in cold temperatures as well as many opportunities for lake effect snow.

Speaking of lake effect snow, we think this year will be a particularly active year. The lakes are much warmer than average going into the winter, and the jet stream favors an early onset of cold weather. This combination gives us the chance of having a very busy season. Could we have a historic event in the mix? There’s no way to tell this far in advance, but the odds are better than usual this time around. We’ll see.

When we look at years similar to the upcoming winter, we do find similarities.

Winter         Snowfall Temp
2008 2009         104.8 -0.7
2005 2006         106.8  2.4
1996 1997         123.5  3.8
1983 1984          85.3   2.8
1974 1975          97.7   3.2

Four of the five years saw near to above average snowfall, with four of the five years significantly warmer than average.

New York Coronavirus Cases

County data is updated nightly.

Cases: 2523560

Reported Deaths: 56130
CountyCasesDeaths
Kings33405310847
Queens31536810288
Suffolk2395573605
Nassau2143703293
Bronx2076626751
New York1681074636
Westchester1436362340
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Monroe842971188
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Broome24451405
Niagara24031397
Saratoga20287200
Ulster17273278
Schenectady16731227
Rensselaer14808167
Putnam1249298
Chautauqua12428175
Oswego11668113
Chemung10932156
St. Lawrence10524127
Steuben10133173
Ontario9352110
Jefferson888076
Cayuga8658107
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Wayne816784
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Genesee7013132
Herkimer6806128
Clinton672540
Tompkins650459
Fulton6331104
Madison6187102
Montgomery5966141
Livingston572771
Warren546084
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Tioga509471
Columbia5009111
Chenango468986
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Washington461367
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Wyoming439358
Greene438586
Orleans434187
Franklin428020
Lewis360338
Delaware356047
Seneca274163
Essex230731
Schoharie229521
Yates164728
Schuyler153817
Hamilton4383
Unassigned14426
Out of NY0317
Utica
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Oneonta
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Herkimer
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Old Forge
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