STREAMING NOW: Watch Now

Stormtracker 2 Winter Outlook 2017-2018

Our forecast is calling for a warmer than average winter with above average snowfall. We think the three month average temperature will end up about 4 degrees above average with 100-120” of snow for the City of Utica.

Posted: Nov. 16, 2017 5:42 PM
Updated: Nov. 16, 2017 6:30 PM

It’s that time of year! Jill and I have been working on predicting the upcoming winter for the past few weeks, and we are ready to reveal the outlook:

Our forecast is calling for a warmer than average winter with above average snowfall. We think the three month average temperature will end up about 4 degrees above average with 100-120” of snow for the City of Utica. The average snowfall for Utica is 95.6”.  Our forecast is based on a weak La Niña and the much warmer than average temperature of the Great Lakes.

As we head into the winter it’s worth taking a look back at the fall. The warm, dry weather we’ve enjoyed was, in part, caused by the prevailing weather and jet stream pattern influenced by La Niña. La Niña is the counterpart of its brother, El Niño. La Niña occurs when the sea surface temperature across the Eastern Pacific Ocean drops below normal.

La Niña affects the weather in the winter. The jet stream set ups right over the Great Lakes and northeast, creating a conveyor belt for moisture and a path for storm system. In addition, with a stormy season, there are opportunities for cold front to slide in from Canada, bringing in cold temperatures as well as many opportunities for lake effect snow.

Speaking of lake effect snow, we think this year will be a particularly active year. The lakes are much warmer than average going into the winter, and the jet stream favors an early onset of cold weather. This combination gives us the chance of having a very busy season. Could we have a historic event in the mix? There’s no way to tell this far in advance, but the odds are better than usual this time around. We’ll see.

When we look at years similar to the upcoming winter, we do find similarities.

Winter         Snowfall Temp
2008 2009         104.8 -0.7
2005 2006         106.8  2.4
1996 1997         123.5  3.8
1983 1984          85.3   2.8
1974 1975          97.7   3.2

Four of the five years saw near to above average snowfall, with four of the five years significantly warmer than average.

Article Comments

New York Sash Teddy Bear Toss VIP Giveaway
Vote October 23 through 30 for your favorite picture in the WKTV Bootiful Costume Contest.
Utica
Overcast
42° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 38°
Oneonta
Overcast
40° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 36°
Herkimer
Overcast
42° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 38°
Thendara
Overcast
42° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 38°
WKTV Radar
WKTV Temperatures
WKTV Severe Weather
Click Here for A Healthier Mohawk Valley