Stormtracker 2 Winter Outlook 2017-2018

Our forecast is calling for a warmer than average winter with above average snowfall. We think the three month average temperature will end up about 4 degrees above average with 100-120” of snow for the City of Utica.

Posted: Nov 16, 2017 5:42 PM
Updated: Nov 16, 2017 6:30 PM

It’s that time of year! Jill and I have been working on predicting the upcoming winter for the past few weeks, and we are ready to reveal the outlook:

Our forecast is calling for a warmer than average winter with above average snowfall. We think the three month average temperature will end up about 4 degrees above average with 100-120” of snow for the City of Utica. The average snowfall for Utica is 95.6”.  Our forecast is based on a weak La Niña and the much warmer than average temperature of the Great Lakes.

As we head into the winter it’s worth taking a look back at the fall. The warm, dry weather we’ve enjoyed was, in part, caused by the prevailing weather and jet stream pattern influenced by La Niña. La Niña is the counterpart of its brother, El Niño. La Niña occurs when the sea surface temperature across the Eastern Pacific Ocean drops below normal.

La Niña affects the weather in the winter. The jet stream set ups right over the Great Lakes and northeast, creating a conveyor belt for moisture and a path for storm system. In addition, with a stormy season, there are opportunities for cold front to slide in from Canada, bringing in cold temperatures as well as many opportunities for lake effect snow.

Speaking of lake effect snow, we think this year will be a particularly active year. The lakes are much warmer than average going into the winter, and the jet stream favors an early onset of cold weather. This combination gives us the chance of having a very busy season. Could we have a historic event in the mix? There’s no way to tell this far in advance, but the odds are better than usual this time around. We’ll see.

When we look at years similar to the upcoming winter, we do find similarities.

Winter         Snowfall Temp
2008 2009         104.8 -0.7
2005 2006         106.8  2.4
1996 1997         123.5  3.8
1983 1984          85.3   2.8
1974 1975          97.7   3.2

Four of the five years saw near to above average snowfall, with four of the five years significantly warmer than average.

New York Coronavirus Cases

County data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 449900

Reported Deaths: 33087
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Queens716827243
Kings671367318
Bronx525784941
Nassau462182201
Suffolk460612011
Westchester378011454
New York330703174
Richmond157301085
Rockland14823675
Orange11812498
Erie10999689
Monroe5894289
Dutchess5059153
Onondaga4220205
Albany3016134
Oneida2375123
Ulster224295
Niagara1724101
Putnam157463
Sullivan157148
Broome146569
Schenectady138048
Saratoga99817
Rensselaer89942
Columbia58137
Chautauqua5379
Madison48717
Ontario46135
Oswego4473
Tompkins3970
Warren36033
Steuben35042
Fulton33224
Otsego3325
Chemung3303
Orleans32354
Herkimer32110
Greene31918
St. Lawrence3184
Genesee3145
Wayne3105
Washington28714
Cattaraugus2546
Chenango2487
Montgomery2274
Tioga22425
Livingston2018
Cayuga1992
Jefferson1630
Essex1600
Cortland1590
Clinton1545
Wyoming1325
Delaware1304
Seneca1053
Allegany981
Schoharie830
Franklin650
Yates627
Lewis500
Schuyler380
Hamilton150
Unassigned016
Utica
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 65°
Oneonta
Clear
63° wxIcon
Hi: 63° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 63°
Herkimer
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 65°
Thendara
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 65°
WKTV Radar
WKTV Temperatures
WKTV Severe Weather
Click here to learn more about A Healthier Mohawk Valley
Saluting Those Who Are Proud 2 Serve
WKTV Golf Card - Under 150 left