Welcome to winter! Almost! The calendar says winter begins Thursday, but we're definitely in a winter pattern here in Upstate New York. Cold air remains entrenched in parts of the region Monday evening, setting the stage for a wintry mix. Here's a look at locations that are still below freezing as of 4pm Monday:

Conditions aren't expected to change much Monday night, so freezing rain and sleet will remain possible in and around the Mohawk Valley this evening, tonight, and early tomorrow. The good news is most roads already have plenty of salt and sand on them and the precipitation is expected to be light. It is cold enough for snow in the Adirondacks, with an inch or two of accumulation expected Monday night as well as an addiitonal inch or two on Tuesday.

Lake effect snow develops on Tuesday night, and the bands do favor the Mohawk Valley. Winds will eventually turn into the north-northwest, and by Wednesday morning the band will be west of Utica. At this point, a few inches of snow are possible and we will keep you updated.

After a break in the weather on Wednesday and Thursday, another storm develops and rolls just to our west for Friday. The front end will likely produce a wintry mix, and it's another scenario where cold air damming is going to keep temperatures cooler than the models are predicting...at least initially. The warm air does make it by Saturday, allowing temperatures to make a run to 40 degrees. Not exactly balmy, but warm enough to dent the snow pack.

We are watching another system near Christmas that could slide up the coast. At this point, the models are still unsure if it will pass west and bring us rain or track over our region and bring a mix of rain and snow. Stay tuned.